Migration Statistics – Page 4

March 22, 2018

Chinese New Year boosts visitors to February record

Statistics New Zealand

More than 15,000 visitors a day on average arrived in New Zealand in February, setting a new record for the month, Stats NZ said today.
Total overseas visitor arrivals numbered 423,500 in February 2018, the highest for any February. This total was up 43,400 from February 2017.
“The strong increase in visitor arrivals in February 2018 coincided with Chinese New Year, which is a peak travel period,” population insights senior manager Peter Dolan said. Chinese New Year was in mid-February this year, compared with late January in 2017.
February 2018 saw 68,900 visitors arriving from China; this was more than double the 33,700 that arrived in February 2017.


More visitors also arrived from other Asian countries that celebrate Chinese New Year; arrivals were up 2,200 from Hong Kong and 1,400 from Taiwan, compared with February 2017.


Visitor arrivals from Asia increased 50 percent in February 2018 from February 2017 – from 80,400 to 120,700.
The record visitor arrivals for the month also contributed to a record number for the February 2018 year. Visitor arrivals for the year numbered 3.78 million – a 7 percent increase on the February 2017 year.
New Zealanders make more trips overseasNew Zealand residents set a new annual February record of 2.87 million overseas trips in 2018, up 215,700 (8 percent) from the February 2017 year. The number of trips made to most countries increased, the largest increases being:
Australia – up 37,000 (3 percent)
Fiji – up 19,000 (12 percent)
China – up 18,600 (18 percent)
United Kingdom – up 12,700 (11 percent)
India – up 7,600 (11 percent).
In the February 2018 month, New Zealand residents made 151,100 trips overseas, up 2 percent from February 2017. “We had as many New Zealanders travelling overseas in February as the combined population of the Tasman, Nelson, and Marlborough regions,” Mr Dolan said.

March 14, 2018

Current account deficit widens to $2.0 billion

Source: Statistics New Zealand

New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted current account deficit widened to $2.0 billion in the December 2017 quarter, Stats NZ said today. The $407 million increase in the deficit was mainly driven by New Zealand importing aircraft and other transport equipment, and crude oil.

The seasonally adjusted goods deficit was $465 million for the December 2017 quarter, $385 million wider than in the September 2017 quarter.

“More transport equipment and crude oil imports both contributed to an increase in the goods deficit this quarter, despite more dairy and logs being exported,” international statistics senior manager Daria Kwon said.

Overseas merchandise trade: December 2017 has more detail.

The seasonally adjusted services surplus remained steady in the December 2017 quarter, at $1.2 billion, the same level as for the September 2017 quarter. Increases in New Zealanders’ spending abroad and overseas visitors’ spending in New Zealand were roughly the same, leading to a small drop in the services surplus.

Overall, the income deficit remained steady in the December 2017 quarter, widening only $6 million to $2.7 billion. Overseas investors had a larger increase in the income they earned from their New Zealand investments than that New Zealanders earned from their investments abroad.

“High levels of foreign direct investment income can indicate a strong New Zealand economy with higher profits for New Zealand-based companies,” Ms Kwon said. The increase in the primary income deficit was mostly offset by a net inflow of secondary income, which includes tax paid by foreigners on their interest or dividends earned in New Zealand.

The current account balance records the value of New Zealand’s transactions with the rest of the world in goods, services, and income. New Zealand has a current account deficit when we spend more than we earn from our transactions with the rest of the world. To fund this deficit, we need a net inflow of investment from the rest of the world. This is reflected in the financial account.

The financial account showed a net inflow of $1.5 billion in the December 2017 quarter. This was driven by a withdrawal of New Zealand assets held abroad (an inflow of money into New Zealand), mainly due to The Treasury withdrawing debt securities.

New Zealand’s net international liability position at 31 December 2017 was $155.2 billion (54.8 percent of GDP), continuing a downward trend. Strong performance by overseas stock markets and valuation changes increased New Zealand’s overseas assets more than our liabilities.

Video summary of Balance of payments and international investment position: December 2017 quarter

Video, 2:33min

Read the transcript of this video (PDF, 113 KB)

March 2, 2018

Outcomes-based net migration updated – Statistics New Zealand

Source: Statistics New Zealand

An update to the outcomes-based measure of migration (the ‘12/16-month rule’) released this week brings the series forward to September 2016, Stats NZ said today.

The measure was introduced by Stats NZ in May 2017. It identifies an individual’s migrant status when we observe their travel history, and their length of stay in New Zealand, after a 16-month follow-up period. It differs from the traditional method of classifying permanent and long-term (PLT) migrants that we base on their stated intention on arrival and departure cards.

The 12/16-month rule showed net migration in the September 2016 year was 64,500, compared with 70,000 as defined by the PLT migration measure. September 2016 is the most-recent available period for outcomes-based migration, due to the 17-month lag to produce migration figures by the 12/16-month rule.

“Migrant statistics that rely on passengers’ stated intentions are affected by uncertainty around people’s assumptions about how long they will be in New Zealand,” population insights senior manager Peter Dolan said.

“Using an outcomes-based measure of defining migrants gives us a clearer picture of the actual migration patterns in New Zealand, and aligns with the approach taken in Australia.”

To improve the timeliness of migrant statistics using the outcomes-based measure, Stats NZ is currently developing a predictive model to produce provisional migrant estimates.

Often, travellers’ stated intentions do not match with what they actually do when they stay in New Zealand. For example, a considerable proportion of PLT arrivals on work visas are not later identified as migrants when they’re classified by the 12/16-month rule.

In the September 2016 quarter, there were 11,200 PLT arrivals with approved work visas. In contrast, the 12/16-month rule estimated 6,600 actual migrant arrivals for this visa type in the quarter.

This difference could be due to passengers assuming their work visa will last longer than a year and stating they will be in New Zealand for more than a year on their arrival card. In reality they actually leave New Zealand before a year has passed.

For more information on the 12/16-month rule, see:

Defining migrants using travel histories and the ’12/16-month rule’

Outcomes versus intentions: Measuring migration based on travel histories

February 28, 2018

Visitor arrivals dip in January – Statistics New Zealand

Source: Statistics New Zealand

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For the first time in five years, total overseas visitor arrivals in January were down on the same month a year before, Stats NZ said today. This change mainly reflected a drop in arrivals from China.

In January 2018, total overseas visitor arrivals numbered 379,200, down 1,800 from January 2017.

Chinese New Year, a peak holiday travel season, was in late January in 2017, but in mid-February in 2018, which likely influenced the timing of monthly arrivals from China to New Zealand.

“In January 2018, the overall fall in visitor arrivals was driven by a 31 percent drop in visitors from China. The number fell from more than 54,100 in January 2017 to 37,300 this year,” population insights senior manager Peter Dolan said.

“However, rolling weekly provisional figures show arrivals from China are picking up in February 2018, as expected, with the start of the Year of the Dog.”

The drop in visitors from China in January was mainly offset by increased numbers from most other countries, including the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom.

Despite the dip for the month, visitor arrivals for the year ended January 2018 numbered 3.73 million, 5 percent above the January 2017 year.

New Zealanders make more trips
New Zealand residents set a new annual January record of 2.87 million overseas trips in the January 2018 year, up 232,300 (9 percent) from the January 2017 year. The number of trips made to most countries increased, the largest being:

Australia – up 45,500 (4 percent)
Fiji – up 20,200 (13 percent)
China – up 15,300 (15 percent)
United Kingdom – up 12,900 (12 percent)
India – up 9,000 (14 percent).

In January 2018, New Zealand residents made 173,700 trips overseas, up 5 percent from January 2017.

February 28, 2018

Annual net migration eases from recent peak – Statistics New Zealand

Source: Statistics New Zealand

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In the year ended January 2018, 70,100 more migrants arrived in New Zealand than left, Stats NZ said today. Migrant arrivals were 132,000 and migrant departures were 61,900.

Annual net migration in the January 2018 year was down 1,200 from the January 2017 year. Annual net migration had reached a record high of 72,400 in the July 2017 year, but has slowed slightly since then.

In the January 2018 year, 24,900 migrants arrived from Australia and a similar number departed for Australia.

“Over half of migrants arriving from Australia are actually returning Kiwis who have been living across the Tasman for more than a year,” population insights senior manager Peter Dolan said.

“The number of migrants going back and forth to Australia in the past year almost balanced each other out – the net gain was just 40 people in the last 12 months.”

That means net migration’s contribution to New Zealand’s population growth in the January 2018 year mainly reflected a gain of 70,100 people from other countries around the world.

The largest net migration in the January 2018 year was for migrants arriving from:

China (net gain of 9,300)
India (6,700)
United Kingdom (6,100)
South Africa (4,900)
Philippines (4,800)
France (3,300)
Germany (3,000).
Student visa arrivals down for India and China
The combined number of migrant arrivals on student visas from India and China, New Zealand’s two largest education markets, fell by 1,000 to 11,100 in the 12 months to January 2018.

Those arriving from India to study, and intending to stay in New Zealand for at least a year, fell 10 percent (down 600) to 5,800. This is 45 percent below a recent peak – 10,600 Indian students in the year ended January 2016.

Migrant arrivals from China on student visas dropped 6 percent (down 350) to 5,300 in the 12 months to January 2018.

The fall in student migrant arrivals from India and China was almost offset by increased numbers from other countries. The overall number of migrants arriving on student visas was 24,100 in the January 2018 year, down just 150 from the January 2017 year.

International migration statistics rely on the information provided on passenger cards at the time of travel. The reported length of intended stay in New Zealand, or time away from New Zealand, determines whether the passenger is a visitor or a migrant.